December 15th, 2025
In late 2025, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada released its 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan, outlining a strategic shift from rapid population growth toward controlled, skills-focused, sustainable immigration. For Canada’s restaurant industry which depends heavily on temporary workers, international students, and newcomers – these changes will shape staffing, wages, and operations through 2026 and beyond.
Below is a clear breakdown of the new policies and what they mean for restaurant operators.
Canada is cutting the growth of temporary workers and students starting in 2026.
TFW Program numbers are shrinking, tightening access to LMIA-based kitchen staff.
Permanent resident admissions stabilize at 380,000/year, favoring long-term workforce settlement.
33,000 temporary workers will be fast-tracked to permanent residency in 2026–27.
115,000 protected persons will gain PR status, expanding the stable labour pool.
Francophone immigration outside Quebec is increasing, boosting bilingual hiring.
Labour competition, wage pressure, and retention challenges will intensify in urban markets.
Canada will intentionally shrink its temporary population to below 5% by 2027, with temporary resident arrivals capped at 385,000 in 2026, dropping to 370,000 in 2027 and 2028.
What this means for restaurants:
Canada’s 2026–2028 immigration plan signals a major shift toward sustainable, skills-driven immigration and a reduction in temporary labour growth. Restaurants must adapt by prioritizing retention, supporting long-term workers’ PR pathways, investing in automation, and planning for persistent labour shortages especially in back-of-house roles.
Operators who prepare now will be better positioned to maintain service quality and protect margins in a tightening labour market.
Yes. The Temporary Foreign Worker (TFW) Program is being reduced from 60,000 workers in 2026 to 50,000 in 2027–28, making LMIA approvals more competitive, especially for urban restaurants.
For most restaurants, shortages will persist or worsen, especially for:
The federal strategy is shifting away from temporary labour toward permanent settlement.
These changes improve long-term retention and workforce stability for operators who plan ahead.
