restaurants trends canada 2026

How Restaurants Can Adapt This Winter Without a Tax Holiday

November 24th, 2025

In Canada, a temporary sales-tax relief known as the Tax Break for All Canadians Act came into effect December 14, 2024 through February 15, 2025, allowing qualifying food and beverage purchases (including many restaurant meals) to be exempt from federal GST/HST. 

For the foodservice sector, this was a meaningful move. The tax holiday included restaurant meals, non-alcoholic beverages, beer, wine and cider up to certain alcohol-by-volume levels. Despite the boost, the tax holiday ended February 15, 2025, and there’s currently no extension planned or confirmed.

So how should restaurant operators adapt this winter without the extra boost?

 Summary

  • Last winter’s GST/HST tax holiday boosted traffic and spending, but with no tax holiday this year, restaurants must create their own value-driven promotions to maintain sales.

  • Consumers remain highly price-sensitive, especially Gen Z and Millennials, making tax-inclusive bundles and loyalty-based incentives essential this winter.

  • Off-premise channels like takeout, delivery, and digital ordering are key revenue drivers and should be paired with targeted mid-week or off-peak deals.

  • Menu optimization, cost control, and focusing on high-margin items are crucial since operators cannot rely on external tax relief to support profitability.

  • Enhancing perceived value through experience, storytelling, and small complimentary touches helps restaurants retain customers despite full taxes.

Why the Absence of a Tax Holiday Matters

When consumers expect a tax break and don’t get one, multiple pressures converge:

  • Price-sensitive diners are already reducing spending; the absence of a tax break removes a marketing hook and potential spending incentive.
  • Margins are slim: many restaurants operate on 3-5% profit margins, so even a modest lift from a tax holiday made a difference before.
  • Expectations shift: If guests assume a “deal” was coming, you may need to provide other value cues to keep them coming in.
  • Competitive differentiation: If your competitors assume a tax holiday and you don’t, or vice-versa, guest perception matters.

Therefore, the next few months will demand proactive strategy rather than relying on external relief.

Re-Position Value Without Cutting Into Margin

Since you can’t rely on a government tax break, consider these approaches:

  • “We absorb the tax” promotions: For example, advertise “Tax Included” on certain dishes or menu bundles, effectively marketing value.
  • Limited-time value bundles: Create mid-week or off-peak combos (e.g., entrée + drink + tax included) to lift low-traffic periods.
  • Transparent value messaging: Communicate what the guest is getting (e.g., “No hidden tax on this dish”) so that even with full tax they perceive a deal.

Strengthen Off-Premise & Digital Channels

Consumers are still shifting to take-out/delivery and value deals when they dine in:

  • Promote take-out or delivery bundles where tax is baked in, and guests feel they’re getting more for their money.
  • Use digital ordering platforms to push special offers (e.g., weekday lunch specials) that drive volume when dine-in traffic may be lower.
  • Highlight loyalty rewards: Since tax relief isn’t happening, stronger loyalty incentives help retain frequent diners.
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Optimize Menu & Cost Efficiency

With no tax relief, internal efficiencies and smart menu design become even more critical:

  • Streamline your menu: Remove low-margin items or those with inconsistent performance; focus on core dishes that deliver reliable cost structure.
  • Portion control and ingredient substitutions: If ingredient inflation is high, consider alternative proteins or locally seasonal produce to manage cost.
  • Menu pricing with care: Small price increases may be necessary but pair them with enhanced value (better sides, combo offers, etc.) so guests feel the benefit.
  • Daypart optimization: Emphasize stronger day-parts (e.g., lunch, brunch, take-out) where consumer demand is holding up, and scale back weaker ones (e.g., late dinner) if needed.

What to Monitor & Metrics to Track

  • Average guest cheque: Are you maintaining or increasing it, or seeing drop-off?
  • Guest frequency: Are existing diners coming back or reducing visits?
  • Daypart breakdown: Compare lunch vs dinner vs take-out.
  • Promotion ROI: Measure incremental spend from offers vs cost of offering (including tax absorption if used).
  • Menu item profitability: Track margin per dish especially if ingredient substitution or portion changes.
  • Customer feedback: Are guests referencing price sensitivity? Are you seeing substitution behaviour (e.g., skipping appetizers or drinks)?

Conclusion

Winter 2025–26 will not have the tax-holiday tailwind that many restaurants enjoyed last season. But that doesn’t mean operators are without tools.

By leaning into positioning value (not just cutting price), streamlining operations, leveraging off-premise channels, and delivering guest-experience enhancements, restaurants can navigate the absence of a tax break and still attract spending.

FAQ

Last year’s GST/HST holiday (Dec 2024-Feb 2025) boosted diner activity, including reported double-digit increases in reservations during the first two weeks. Restaurants saw improved value perception, especially for casual dining and takeout, but the impact varied by region and business size.

The most effective alternative is a targeted, limited-time “tax included” or “we pay the tax” promotion, paired with loyalty rewards. This avoids the financial hit of a broad discount while still giving guests the sense of getting a deal.

Small, strategic price increases may be necessary due to food and labour inflation. However, operators should balance them with value-driven offers, optimized portions, better combos, and enhanced customer experience so guests still feel they’re getting strong value.

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